Wednesday, September 10, 2008

In matters of weather, nothing is certain

Over the years I've been involved in the coverage of many hurricanes. And very few of them have actually taken the path they were "supposed" to take.

On one occasion every report and computer model had a storm heading due west. It was supposed to come close to us by miss us. Still, we were doing cut-ins in the middle of the night. At about three in the morning, the hurricane decided to make a right turn and we took a direct hit.

On another occasion we had the entire staff braced and ready for what was supposed to be a direct hit on a Saturday. Several hours before landfall the storm veered off in the opposite direction. A bunch of us ended up playing golf that day, as the weather turned out to be beautiful.

Remember Hurricane Ivan? It whacked the Gulf Coast, went up the Eastern seaboard, turned around and hit the Gulf again.

The only thing certain about nature is weather is its unpredictability. So when I see anchors, reporters and weathercasters talk with certainty about nature, I can only roll my eyes.

On one side of the coin, we have the "sky is falling" alarmists who ring the panic bell when hurricanes are a week away. On the other, the people who assure viewers that the hurricane will strike in a certain spot and they either need to evacuate or not worry.

I'm not sure who first coined the phrase "cone of uncertainty" but you need to pay attention to the "uncertainty" part. When it comes to hurricanes, it aint over till its over.

Your viewers need to be informed and prepared, but not scared or lulled into a false sense of security. Whether you're a weather person, anchor or reporter, be judicious with your comments and stay away from predictions.

The only true expert is Mother Nature.

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