As I gaze into my crystal ball I ask what lies ahead for the broadcast industry for the coming year. Clouds form, but begin to thin out, and give me a clear picture of what you can expect in 2009...
-The industry will finally "bottom out" and begin to recover. Layoffs will slow, the economy will recover (more about that in a moment) and purse strings will begin to loosen up. And more important, stations will start hiring again.
-The economy will recover beginning January 21st. All those media people who wanted a certain person in the White House and pounded the general public with gloom and doom economic stories... well, those people want to keep that certain person in the White House. Slowly, subtly, positive economic stories will find their way onto the networks. The good feeling will trickle down to the broadcast industry. (Ironic, though, how those negative economic stories came back to bite those in the industry in the form of layoffs.)
-More and more young people will break into large markets as middle-aged veterans get out of the business. There will never be greater opportunities for someone with limited experience... but you'll still need a ton of talent. In other words, don't be afraid to send a tape anywhere in 2009.
-February 17th will be a day you want to take off. When that digital switch hits, everything will hit the fan, and George Carlin's Flying Mongolian Cluster will become reality. Every senior citizen who can't tune in The Price is Right or Murder She Wrote reruns will call your station to complain. I pity the engineers who work that day.
-Some stations will finally realize one-man-bands are the wrong way to go and ditch the concept. Others will hold onto it like grim death, along with their lousy ratings. (But the bean counters will be happy.)
-A few major market stations will experiment with one-man-bands. The Mets will also try to go through another season without a legitimate second baseman. Both experiments will fail miserably.
-A network morning show producer will get hit by a revelation that half the people on the planet are men and don't care for daily stories about purses and shoes.
-More major market stations will try using a few freelance reporters. If you can live without benefits or have a spouse who provides them, here's your chance for a foot in the door.
-RTNDA will have an incredibly low turnout.
-(I hope I'm wrong about this one.) Some idiot local anchor will get a DUI. Anchor will then offer a mea culpa saying, "I made an error in judgment." (Note: painting your kitchen the wrong color is an error in judgment. Getting behind the wheel while drunk is just plain stupid.) Anchor will not be fired, as GM will announce, "Our anchor has received an outpouring of support from the community, and we're going to help our anchor get through this." (Note to GMs: three emails from barflies does not constitute an "outpouring of support.") Station will turn anchor's "recovery" into a sweeps series.
-Men wearing vests will be the hot new trend for guys.
-Women not dying their hair will be the hot new trend for gals.
-Stations will start putting interns on the air. (In some markets, that could be an improvement.)
-More sports guys will start joining the news department, as the shortage of male newscasters continues.
-Some stations will actually cut down on the number of newscasts, as a smaller staff and higher DVR use will dictate changes. Also, because in some markets, there's simply not enough news to fill all the slots with a smaller staff.
-Noon newscasts will begin to die a slow, grisly (well deserved) death.
-More consultants will be typing their own resumes.
-And until you can pry his laptop from his cold, dead fingers, the Grape will continue to offer advice and tick off News Directors by revealing secrets of management. (And now that I'm talking about myself in the third person, I guess I have to run for office.)
Finally, a serious note. Can we get through one New Year's Eve without some news person getting a DUI and seeing their mugshot on the Internet? Please, if you're going out drinking, put the phone number of a cab company in your cell phone and spend ten bucks to get home safely and not endanger other innocent people. Or be the designated driver. You can have a Happy New Year without being stupid.
That said, best to all of you in 2009. I look forward to hearing your success stories.
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